Jim Pinkerton over at Newsday thinks so.
[Maybe] Bush doesn't really need to worry about this movie. And here's why: If Bush and the Iraq war are this bad, why vote for John Kerry? After all, in 2002, Kerry voted with Bush and the Republicans - and against a majority of congressional Democrats - to support the war.
Try as he might, Moore will not get his R-rated film before the mass of American moviegoers. Instead, it will play heavily in liberal areas - places that are already likely to go strongly for Kerry. Bush voters will be few and far between.
Here's the rub: The more left-leaning the locale, the more likely that third-party candidate Ralph Nader will be a force there, too.
Indeed, as public opinion has turned against the war, support for Kerry has increased, but so has support for Nader. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Kerry besting Bush by four points. But Nader, who strongly opposed the war all along and proposes an immediate American pullout, is gaining, too. In recent months he has surged from asterisk levels to 6 percent. Almost all of those votes come out of Kerry's hide.
...
So if Moore's film is a hit at the box office, it's more likely to turn Kerry voters into Nader voters than it is to turn Bush voters into Kerry voters. That probably isn't Moore's intention, but the problem with zealous prosecutors is that once they get their blood up for the big confrontation, it's hard to get them to cool down, even if that would have been best for their case.
